There are lots of reactions to a blank pool sheet.

Some will embrace their ignorance and use some quirky method for picking teams. Some will dive into the world of college basketball and learn everything they can before making their selections.

The advice from an expert? Follow a path somewhere in between.

"You show me a guy who knows everything about college basketball and I'll show you a guy who's not going to win his bracket pool because he just knows too much," said Steven Ney, co-author of "The Unofficial Office Pool Handbook." "You get polluted by too much information."

But Ney cautions that anyone serious about winning should do some compulsory research. So before handing over your sheet, we offer some guidance.

Forget the underdogs

We've been brainwashed into thinking March Madness is defined by those tiny schools slaying the basketball powerhouses. The truth is, upsets - real upsets - are rare.

"The biggest mistake is falling in love with Cinderella teams, thinking it's going to be upset city in the first round," Ney said.

Remember that a No. 16 has never beaten a No. 1 in the first round and No. 15 is 4-88 against No. 2. For 19 consecutive years, the national champion has been a No. 4 seed or higher.

Even if you pick a few early round underdogs, don't pick them to advance to the Elite Eight or Final Four.

Well, most underdogs

According to Las Vegas betting expert R.J. Bell, founder of Pregame.com, the challenge is identifying those rare early round upsets. The upsets tend to come from No. 9 through No. 12. The 12th seed is 11-17 vs. No. 5 over the past seven years.

So when contemplating an underdog, steer clear of the 13-16 seeds and pay special attention to that 8/9 game - No. 9 is 50-42 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams 23 years ago.

And Bell's site points out that the No. 1 seed wins its first two games 87 percent of the time, so don't ignore the top seed.

But don't fall in love with No. 1

There has never been a Final Four featuring four No. 1 seeds, so don't pick the top team out of the each region. But be sure to advance a team near the top of the seedings - there have been only two of 92 Final Four teams that were lower than an eighth seed in the past 23 years.

Most years, there are one or two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. Only three times (1999, 1997, 1993) have three No. 1's reached the Final Four.

In the past 25 years, No. 1 seeds have won the tournament 15 times, second seeds six times and third seeds four times, so play it safe and stick with the favorites.

Stick with the elites

Again, it's fun but not practical to ride some mid-major school to the Final Four. History tells us that the Final Four teams and the eventual winner will come from one of the powerhouse conferences.

The ACC has produced six national champions in 23 years, followed by the SEC (five), the Big East (four) and the Big Ten (three). The ACC also has the best winning percentage in the tournament over 23 years (.671) and they've produced the most Final Four teams (21). The Big Ten has produced 16 Final Four teams, the SEC 13, and the Big East and Big 12 11 each.

Study geography

Consider the distance schools have to travel. A study by the Raleigh (N.C.) News & Observer found that teams playing within 250 miles of their campus have won 69 percent of tournament games over the past 12 years. And conversely, teams that travel 500 miles or more won 46.5 percent of tournament games.

So pay attention to No. 1 North Carolina, which plays its first two games in Raleigh before advancing to Charlotte in the East Regional. The Tar Heels won't leave North Carolina before the Final Four.

Avoid geography

When glancing at your sheet, don't think of these schools as potential vacation spots. San Diego has a wonderful climate and lots to do, but the No. 13 Toreros shouldn't be picked over No. 4 UConn in the West Regional.

And you might love UNLV because you dream of showgirls and slot machines, but the No. 8 Rebels aren't much of a favorite against No. 9 Kent State, and they certainly won't beat No. 1 Kansas in the second round of the Midwest Regional.

Find your own method

And we're not talking about picking based on mascots and uniform color. Delve into the numbers and think outside the box.

We heard of one two-time pool winner who takes the RPI as of Jan. 1 and compares it to the one that comes out the Sunday before the tournament. Add a little intuition and she was a winner.

But avoid too much information

Remember, this is a form of gambling and it's possible to become too involved.

"Things are harmful when they interfere with your life," New York psychologist Richard Lustberg said. "So if you're up to 3 o'clock in the morning with your pool sheet and you don't make it to work the next day, that's a problem."

Lustberg, who runs psychologyofsports.com, believes most people have a healthy view of office pools.

"As long as it's fun for people, it's harmless," he said.

And finally, don't gloat

Ney calls them Mr. I-told-you-so, those who boast about their sheets and brag when they win. Amateurs, he calls them.

"This is a crapshoot and when you've got an I-told-you-so talking, you've got a whole office rooting against them," Ney said. "The one major rule of gambling is, just shut up. If you win, don't say anything."