Upset specials: Confidence, rise in talent fuel dreams

Thursday, March 20, 2003
Copyright 2003 North Jersey Media Group

By JORGE ARANGURE JR.
Staff Writer

Members of the Central Michigan basketball team hoist the championship trophy after their 77-67 win over Kent State at the Mid-American Conference tournament, Saturday, March 15, 2003, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

Homer Drew remembers the eyes in the huddle, piercing and preying, steady and unflinching, a sure sign his team was ready to play, a sure sign that perhaps on that wonderful afternoon, his team would do the unthinkable.

In 1998, Drew's 13th-seeded Valparaiso Crusaders believed in the NCAA tournament first-round upset, the buzzer-beaters, the back-door baskets, the length-of-the-court drives, the one shining moment.

"The look in the eyes of our players was encouraging for the coaching staff," said Drew. "They were focused, dedicated, and hungry. You could just read that in their eyes."

Starting with the 1985 tourney, 33 teams seeded 13th or lower have realized the first-round upset. UNC-Wilmington, a 13th seed that defeated fourth-seeded USC, was the only team to do it last year. But these upsets happen every year, becoming frozen moments in time. People may not remember the names -teams such as Hampton, Richmond, Santa Clara, and Coppin State, the only 15 seeds to defeat No. 2 seeds, slide into obscurity as quickly as they had risen to prominence -but they remember the moments.

And let's be real: The upsets are the reason to watch the tournament in the early going.

"To me, this is the greatest venue for sports fans," said Drew. "You've got new faces every year. Who's going to be the next Cinderella?"

And every upstart upset starts with a mind-set, a will to win, a certain look in the eyes of players who are not given much of a chance to win.

Because the first-round upset is as much mental as it is physical.

"It's very psychological," said Arizona assistant coach and former Wildcat player Josh Pastner. "In a 40-minute game, anybody can beat anybody."

Like on that March day in 1998 when Drew

and his 13th-seeded Crusaders of the Mid-Continent Conference matched up against the fourth-seeded Mississippi Rebels of the mighty Southeastern Conference. The Crusaders gained confidence each passing moment that the game was close.

"When you're hanging in there against a team you were supposed to lose to, there's a belief that you can win," said sports psychologist Richard Lustberg of psychologyofsports.com.

"If they can get the game to the 10-minute mark, it's crucial," ESPN analyst Dick Vitale said of upset-minded teams. "Now you really put the heat on the big teams. It becomes nervous time from that point on. The heat just begins to mount like crazy. There's a state of urgency."

And even when faced with tremendous obstacles, which for Valparaiso were a two-point deficit with only 2.5 seconds remaining in the game and no timeouts, confident upstarts can still find a way to win.

"Pacer, Pacer," Drew proudly remembered his players confidently calling in that late-game situation. The "Pacer" play, which Drew says he practiced -at most -once a week, called for a length-of-the-court pass to a player in the middle, who would then pass the ball to an open shooter at the wing. The Crusaders ran the play to perfection and Drew's son, Bryce, made the open three-point shot to give Valparaiso a 70-69 upset win over the Rebels.

"Wherever we go," said the elder Drew, who retired after the 2002 season, "alumni still remember where they were when they saw or heard the shot. It's been a neat thing for the history of Valparaiso. But it was also for every small school in the country. I've had so many phone calls about the encouragement our program gave to other schools."

How, then, do these upsets happen? How do teams that seemingly have more talent lose to smaller schools with players who were virtually ignored during the recruiting process by big schools?

Yes, sometimes good teams have bad nights when balls seem to bounce off the rim every time. But isn't it more than that? Can being a favorite actually be a disadvantage?

"Losing is easier than winning," said Lustberg. "Winning transforms you into a different level. It changes who you are personally, your identity individually and collectively. It takes you into a whole different plateau.

"The ability to handle being in the spotlight is a big psychological stride. The ability to not be afraid of that or to sustain it is more difficult than you think. Sometimes, it's the fear of winning."

Perhaps it's time some coaches consider studying Sigmund Freud and not just John Wooden. Drew, on that upset day, realized he didn't need to diagram a complicated play, that he would play the role of a psychologist rather than a basketball coach. The key to a win was in the eyes of his players.

"The ability to change on the run, the ability to make in game adjustments is crucial," said Lustberg. "What happens in that huddle is crucial in terms of a coach's tone. When the team falls apart, it's your ability to put the team back together. Those kids are looking for a solution. 'How are we going to fix it?' If you don't convey that in a calm, collective manner, you're in trouble."

What's a coach to do?

"You got to keep a positive atmosphere," said Pastner. "But at that point, you're hoping guys don't need you to motivate them."

And then you hope you have a star player who doesn't cave under the pressure.

"Who's going to step up is all about who's comfortable in the spotlight," said Lustberg. "Certain players are not comfortable with the ball in their hands. You ask coaches: Some of the biggest stars don't want the ball in the final seconds."

Pastner recalls that his 1997 fourth-seeded Arizona team almost lost in the first round to No. 13 South Alabama. But senior Miles Simon made sure his team advanced, scoring nine of his 11 points in the final seven minutes of Arizona's 65-57 win. The Wildcats went on to win the title.

"In the last five minutes, he willed us to win," said Pastner.

Some coaches downplay the mental aspect, insisting that the talent level is more balanced than ever.

"There's more pressure in that opening game," said Michigan State coach Tom Izzo. "I don't think it's much mental. There's so much parity, there's better teams. I look at some of the teams now, and no knock to the higher seeds, but you could go and switch the 11 and 12 seeds with the 6 and 7 seeds and have the same caliber of teams."

But there's a reason why Drew remembers the eyes, the stoic look on the face of his players that told the entire story of that game. A look that spoke of confidence, composure. The look of a first-round upset.

BEATING THE BIG BOYS

A 16th seed has never beaten a top seed in the NCAA men's tournament, but over the past 20 years there have been plenty of upsets. Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the first-round upsets by 12, 13, 14, and 15 seeds:

YEAR 12TH SEED 13TH SEED 14TH SEED 15TH SEED

1983 Princeton over Oklahoma St.

1984 Richmond over Auburn

1985 Kentucky over Washington Navy over LSU

1986 DePaul over Virginia Cleveland St. over Indiana

Ark.-Little Rock over N. Dame

1987 Wyoming over Virginia SW Missouri St. over Clemson Austin Peay over Illinois

Xavier over Missouri

1988 Richmond over Indiana Murray St. over N.C. State

1989 DePaul over Memphis Midd.Tenn. St. over Florida St. Siena over Stanford

1990 Ball State over Oregon St. No. Iowa over Missouri

Dayton over Illinois

1991 E. Michigan over Miss. St. Penn State over UCLA Xavier over Nebraska Richmond over Syracuse

1992 N. Mexico St. over DePaul SW Louisiana over Oklahoma East Tenn. St. over Arizona

1993 G. Wash. over N.Mexico Southern over Georgia Tech Santa Clara over Arizona

1994 Wisc. GB over California

Tulsa over UCLA

1995 Miami (Ohio) over Arizona Manhattan over Oklahoma Weber St. over Michigan St.

Old Dominion over Villanova

1996 Drexel over Memphis Princeton over UCLA

Arkansas over Penn State

1997 UT-Chatt. over Georgia Coppin St. over S. Carolina

1998 Florida St. over TCU Valparaiso over Mississippi Richmond over S. Carolina

1999 Detroit over UCLA Oklahoma over Arizona Weber State over N. Carolina

SW Missouri St. over Wisc.

2000

2001 Kent St. over Indiana Hampton over Iowa State

Indiana St. over Oklahoma

2002 Missouri over Miami, Fla. UNC Wilmington over USC

Tulsa over Marquette

Creighton over Florida

Jorge Arangure's e-mail address is arangure@northjersey.com